Monthly Market Updates

Posted May 28, 2009

Sell in May and Go Away?

Sell in May and go away, a Wall Street phrase that harkens back to the days when money managers would go to cash before leaving New York for a summer in the Hamptons. Although the phrase is dated, it is something traders still think about and talk about this time of the year. However, a better description of this May would be consolidation. After moving nearly 40% higher in the period between… Read More ›

Posted April 30, 2009

April Showers?

April showers avoided the desert and the stock market, as the sun continued to shine on the rally that began March 6th and has now taken the S&P 500 31% off the lows set March 6th. After one of the worst starts to a trading year in history, the markets abruptly reversed in early March and, after moving 8.6% higher last month, the S&P 500 added another 9.4% this month, putting in… Read More ›

Posted March 31, 2009

In Like a Bear, Out Like a Calf

In like a bear, out like a calf. After experiencing 6 consecutive monthly declines, including the worst year in the history of the S&P 500 index, followed by the worst January in the history of the index, the 2nd worst February in history and the worst first week of March in history, the buyers returned. Reluctant at first, but becoming more aggressive as the month wore on. Had it not been for… Read More ›

Posted February 28, 2009

Irrational Pessimism?

Irrational exuberance, a phase made famous by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in a speech before the American Enterprise Institute in December of 1996, while warning of what he believed was an overheated stock market. One could certainly make a case what we are experiencing now is the opposite of that, let’s call it irrational pessimism. Pessimism, as defined by Webster, is “to expect the worst possible outcome” and I don’t… Read More ›

Posted January 31, 2009

Here We Go, Again?

Déjà vu all over again. The words of Yogi Berra seemed an appropriate way to start this commentary, as it does seem like we have “been here, done this”. In the fall of 2008 the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and IndyMac Bank created fear of a 1929 style “run on the banks”, and prompted the Federal Government to move quickly toward stabilizing the banking system by encouraging marriages… Read More ›