Technically Speaking – June

July 2, 2025

Long-term Resistance: SP500  6225

Long – Term Support: SP500  5270 then 4680

Markets had a strong June, ending +5% for the month and now +5.5% for the year. This strength came from growing optimism around trade deals and the conflict between Israel and Iran being contained quickly. Businesses are indicating tariff impact has begun to take form and many believe it may not be as negative as some initially thought. The S&P hit all-time highs in June before slightly retreating, making the new resistance level 6,225. This level will be tested moving forward and if it breaks out due to continued positive news, then we could see the S&P continue to hit news highs. The belief is the Fed will cuts rates sooner rather than later. If this holds true, then we could see a strong 2^nd half of the year. If the Fed changes their tune because they do not like how inflation is moving, then the market sentiment will turn down. For now, investor sentiment seems to be trending positive and will continue as long as the geopolitical tensions continue to calm and the Fed continues with its talks towards rates cuts.

We have the luxury of high rates in the money markets right now, but as the Fed cuts rates those rates will come down as well. We will continue to put money to work in the equity markets as long as the positive sentiment stays steady. If we believe the markets are hitting highs and becoming over bought, then we will look to take some profit off the table and wait for a downturn to get more aggressive.