Best Month for the S&P 500 in 6 Years

April 30, 2026

April has historically been one of the better months for stock market performance, but we suggested at the end of last month that the war would likely play a role in market performance. However, here we are at the end of April with oil prices and interest rates higher and the war in some type of standoff, but the S&P 500 had its best month since the end of the pandemic 6 years ago!  Not only did the widely followed index erase all the loss from March, it set several new all-time highs during the month, not something we expected to see in this environment. Several times during the month it appeared the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might end, and the market greeted those reports with a rally to new all-time highs.  It appears investors are viewing war and higher oil prices as temporary and are focusing on the artificial intelligence revolution.  The term we use for these types of moves is FOMO, fear of missing out. At month end the S&P 500 had rallied 10.4%, the best month for the widely followed index since the pandemic and is now 5.3% higher for the year. Oil prices rose nearly 4% and gold ended the month down 1.5%.  The rate on the 10-year Treasury ended the month little changed from the end of March.

The month began on a Wednesday before the 3-day Easter weekend and with little in the way of market moving news the S&P 500 edged .8% higher.  Despite the Good Friday holiday, the government did release the monthly jobs report, and it was much better than expected which kicked off the first full week of trading with a nice rally. Mid-week Trump issued a 2 week cease fire that ignited an explosive move higher in the major indices that continued through the end of the week.  For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%.  The rally continued into the following week with the tech heavy NASDAQ having its longest consecutive day winning streak in 34 years! On Friday Trump reported the Strait of Hormuz had reopened which sent oil down $10 a barrel and the S&P up 4.5% for the week.  The following week we learned the Strait had not opened and oil once again began to climb.  Trump extended the ceasefire which helped the S&P 500 end the week with a fractional gain. The final week saw stalemate as Iran continued to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, Trump continued the cease fire and oil prices moved steadily higher. On the last day of the month strong earnings from several major companies propelled the S&P to another all-time high.

May has historically been a higher month 60% of the time, but it is the only month with an average return of 0.  We expect some resolution of the war and rising oil prices during May and if April is an example, the market wants to go higher.  If the S&P 500 can gain 10% in an environment as uncertain as we have had, it will be interesting to see what happens if there is some resolution of war and rising oil prices.  In mid-April we saw a $10 plunge in the price of oil on a report the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and while the report turned out not to be true, it is an example of what can happen once oil begins to flow again.  Stock valuations are elevated, which is not unusual considering the artificial intelligence revolution we are experiencing.  While the risk of a major downside move is diminished, a headline making event can always change that thesis. We believe the biggest risk to the market is a long-term continued rise in interest rates and oil which would have negative impacts on economic growth.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790.  Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform.  Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.