Technically Speaking – May

May 1, 2026

Long Term Resistance SP500:                  7,275

Long Term Support SP500:                         6615 then 6,390

We ended a strong April by seeing the S&P 500 and the NSADAQ both hit all-time highs. This comes as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still tense and oil prices are still over $100 per barrel. It seems as if investors put that news aside and focused on earnings and guidance for the rest of the year. Multiple big tech companies reported strong 1 quarter earnings reports and either raised guidance or reaffirmed guidance for the rest of the year. This is what helped propel the tech heavy NASDAQ and the S&P 500 to new highs. The S&P has become concentrated in tech over the last few years, so it tends to move with tech news. The RSP is the equal weighted S&P 500 index, and I think it is a better gauge to get a reading on how the overall economy is doing. The RSP was +6% in April, which shows the economy is strong and moving forward even with the Iran war still going on. The markets tend to be a 6-month leading indicator, and that is exactly what we are seeing. Investors seem to think the Iran war will come to an end sooner rather than later and they want to be prepared for that.

When the Iran war ends and the straight of Hormuz is officially opened again, we can expect the markets to take off. We are still in the AI revolution, and it is only gaining strength and more widespread acceptance. At some point we will see a pullback, that is inevitable, but the overall sentiment when it comes to where we are headed in technology, is very optimistic. Barring any unforeseen escalations from geopolitical issues, I believe we are headed for a strong year in the markets.

With that said, there is a point where companies become overvalued and bubble talk begins (which it already has with AI). If you are becoming more and more nervous about the state of the markets and how much they have grown recently, it might be time to raise some cash. I do not think going 100% cash is ever the right move, but if your growth allocation is 20% of your entire portfolio, and it has now grown to 30%, and you are nervous about possible volatility in the near future, then it wouldn’t hurt to raise some cash. I am going to remain a buyer for the foreseeable future. Even in strong markets, there are good companies that have pullbacks due to company news. This gives an opportunity to start a position if you have been waiting.