Monthly Market Updates

Posted August 30, 2019

China Trade and an Inverted Yield Curve

Coming into the month we thought China trade would be a primary market driver, which it was, but we didn’t expect to see the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note drop by 25% during the month, an extremely unusual event. Much of the talk this month was about the inverted yield curve, when the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the yield on the 2-year Treasury, and how that has… Read More ›

Posted July 31, 2019

Lower Rates But No China Deal

July has historically been a good month for stocks and this year was no exception. We thought the gains for the month might be diminished this year by the best first half for the market in 22 years, but the rally continued into July.  The two primary themes remained the same, a more accommodative interest rate policy from the Fed and the hopes for some type of China trade deal.  This month… Read More ›

Posted June 28, 2019

Best June For Stocks in 80 Years

Concerns about China trade sent the market 6.6% lower in May, its worst May performance in 9 years, but conciliatory comments from China sent the Dow more than 500 points higher in early June and we were on our way to a new all-time high for the widely followed S&P 500.  An increasing probability the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, perhaps as soon as July, added to the buying enthusiasm.  June… Read More ›

Posted June 1, 2019

Trade Turmoil

The S&P 500 hit an all-time intraday high on the first day of the month but then the index moved steadily lower for the remainder of the month.  As the month began economic numbers and corporate earnings were good and most believed Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who said the China trade deal was in its final lap.  A trade deal with China is seen as a boost to economic activity so, when the… Read More ›

Posted March 29, 2019

Best Start Since 1998

Coming off the December meltdown, the S&P 500 had gained more than 18% in just 44 trading days ending 2/28. With a strong upward move like that one could expect some “backing and filling” as those gains are digested, and that is much of what we saw in March.  One of the biggest moves during the month was interest rates, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped 10% to the lowest… Read More ›