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March is traditionally an “average” month for the market.  Over the last 50 years the mean increase for the month has been .6% and we have closed higher about 60% of the time.  However, coming into March the S&P 500 had advanced for 4 consecutive months and was nearly 7% higher for the year, so […]

January was the 3rd consecutive positive month for the S&P 500 as the traditionally strongest 3 months of the year were true to form.  Over the past 50 years February has been the second worst month for stocks as some take profits from the strongest period, so we came into the month with low expectations.  […]

January is traditionally a good month for the market as it is the month with the largest inflow of money into retirement accounts.  Regardless of your income, if you participate in a 401k plan you contribute in January.  The Goldilocks economy we had near the end of last year continued into the new year with […]

The period from November 1st through the last day of January has traditionally accounted for over 50% of total stock market gains for the year.  December is typically the best performing month of that 3-month stretch but coming off a nearly 9% gain for the S&P 500 in November we wondered how much rally was […]

November has historically been one of the better months for stocks and marks the beginning of what is traditionally a good 3-month period for the market.  Coming into November the market was on a 3-month losing streak and we said if the war did not expand outside Gaza and/or if interest rates were to ease, […]

Last month we said interest rates and oil prices were likely to be the catalysts for the market, but the horrific Hamas massacres in Israel changed the narrative and added an unexpected level of uncertainty for investors.  Not surprisingly, the attack sent oil prices higher and gold to levels not seen since May.  In a […]

For reasons that are not clear, September has historically been the worst month of the year for stock market performance.  It is the only month that has, on average, closed lower and it is the only month where the odds of closing lower are greater than the odds of moving higher.  We are always reminded […]

Coming into August the S&P 500 had risen for 5 consecutive months, and we wondered at the end of last month if it wasn’t time for a breather.  Let’s face it, the Federal Reserve is working hard to slow the economy and they seem to be succeeding. Interest rates have, in many cases, moved to […]

July is traditionally one of the better months for stock market performance and it continued that trend this year.  The 30 stock Dow Industrial average had been lagging the overall market this year but made up some of that ground in July.  A Dow rally began July 10th ran for 13 consecutive days, something we […]

Despite rising interest rates and a slowing economy, the S&P 500 was up 8.9% at the end of May and that momentum continued into June.  At the end of May, the S&P 500 was at 4180 and we thought the positive momentum could carry the market modestly higher before hitting resistance at the February high […]