Seven Straight Months of Gains

October 31, 2025

September is traditionally a tough month for stocks and October has a bad reputation as it has been the home to most market meltdowns.  As a result, we are often cautious as we move through this period.  However, this year we were reminded history is simply a guide and not an absolute. The market rally that began after the uncertainty of the tariff tantrums in April continued without pause through both months, taking all the major indices to multiple new all-time highs. An environment where interest rates are expected to decline is typically a good environment for stock performance, and when you add the artificial intelligence and quantum computing excitement you would expect stocks to move higher, which they did.  At the end of October, the S&P 500 had gained another 2.3% and is now 16.3% higher for the year.  The tech heavy NASDAQ gained 4.7% in October and is now 60% above the April low!  The Federal Reserve did lower interest rates for the second time this year which sent the 10-year treasury yield fractionally lower.  Oil prices declined 2% in October and gold had a volatile month ending with a gain of 4%.

The month began with the uncertainty of a federal government shutdown, but the market shrugged it off and moved higher.  With the government closed the economic reports that typically move the market were absent all month. The first full week of the month began with a new all-time high on Monday followed by profit taking Tuesday that ended a 7 day win streak for the S&P 500. The widely followed index had hit a new all-time high during the week, but on Friday the trade war with China, that we thought was over, raised its head and sent the S&P 500 plunging 3%.  At the end of the first 8 days of trading the S&P 500 was 2% lower for October.  The second full week began with comments from President Trump that things with China will be okay and the S&P 500 regained much of what it had lost the previous week.  We began to see the first Q3 earnings reports and they were, on average, better than analysts had expected and helped offset some of the trade concerns.  At the end of the week the S&P 500 had gained 1.7% and was close to unchanged on the month.  The following week was the best of the month on talk about the government shutdown ending, a more conciliatory tone from China and quarterly earnings that were solid.  We also learned CPI in September moved 3% higher which, while the highest this year, was in line with expectations.  At week’s end the S&P 500 had gained another 1.9%.  The final week was the busiest this quarter for corporate earnings reports.  We expect a trade deal with China, we expect the government shutdown to end, and the federal reserve did lower interest rates. Corporate earnings from many major companies were encouraging and the market responded with more new all-time highs, ending the week with a gain of 2.3%.

November begins a 3-month period that has historically been the strongest period for stock market performance, accounting for nearly 50% of all gains annually.  We have been reminded over the last 60 days that history is simply a guide, but this is a period where one has typically been rewarded for investing in stocks.  The fly in the ointment continues to be market valuation which is well above the historic norm.  We seem to be experiencing a perfect storm for stock market performance, but because of the extended valuation the market is vulnerable to any change in the “forecast”.  We have recently become more fully invested and hope to take advantage of this seasonally strong time of the year.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790.  You can also listen to us on iHeart radio, follow us on Twitter@gbergfinancial or on Facebook under Greenberg Financial Group.  Previous radio shows are available by going to www.iheart.com or using the iHeart app and typing Money Matters with Dean Greenberg.