September to Remember

October 1, 2025

We were reminded in September that history is only a guide and not an absolute.  September has traditionally been by far the worst month of the year for stocks and coming into the month valuations were stretched, and it would have been a logical place for a pullback.  What we saw instead was a market that pushed to multiple new all-time highs for all the major indices.  The market is a predictive vehicle and investors like what they are seeing in the future. Many are expecting lower interest rates and a continuation of the artificial intelligence build out that has been driving the market. Only the last week of the month saw any significant selling.  At month end the S&P 500 had gained 3.5% and is now 13.7% higher for the year.  Technology stocks continued to lead the way with the tech heavy NASDAQ gaining 5.6% taking it to a 17.3% advance for the year.  That index is now an amazing 53.3% above the April low!  Despite the enthusiasm oil did not join the party, ending the month 2.5% lower.  Gold continued its record run with more all-time highs adding another 11.8% to this year’s advance which is now 47%.  Interest rates edged fractionally lower.

The month began with a week shortened by the Labor Day holiday and on the first trading day a federal judge ruled only Congress can levy tariffs which sent the market lower.  If it is determined President Trump’s tariffs are illegal,  billions of dollars would need to be refunded.  The issue appears headed to the Supreme Court and investors are betting Trump will win. The market was also lower on the last day of that week after the government reported a disappointing jobs report. A rally in the middle of the week helped offset the selling on both ends sending the S&P 500 up .3% to start the month. The second full week was the best of the month with technology stocks leading the way.  A blow out earnings report from Oracle gave that stock its best day in 40 years and the closely watched Consumer Price Index showed inflation just fractionally higher in August. The week ended with the S&P 500 up 1.6%.  The rally continued into the following week with strong earnings from the technology sector, a 25-basis point cut in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and a report that a deal to bring the U S arm of Tik Tok under U S control was imminent.  The week ended with the S&P 500 gaining another 1.2%.  During the final week of the month, we saw profit taking in the high momentum names that have been leading the market, but a report on Friday that the Personal Consumption Index, which is reportedly the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, was in line with expectations eliminated much of the loss.  At week’s end the S&P 500 had shed just .3%. The last 2 days the market was focused on the looming government shutdown and its potential duration.

October has a bad reputation as it has been the home of most market “crashes”.  However, despite the bad reputation, the month has ended with a gain nearly 60% of the time and the overall performance has been in line with other months.  While stock valuations are rich, and the market is due for a pullback, we could have said that anytime over the past few months.  There are several things that could derail the rally including rising interest rates, a ruling that Trump’s tariffs are illegal or an escalation in global tensions, but the market has been moving steadily higher, and it is always good investment policy not to “fight the tape”.  We have been cautious over the past few months, and we will continue until we see a tradeable move lower.  With that said, we would be buyers on that dip.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790.  You can also listen to us on iHeart radio, follow us on Twitter@gbergfinancial or on Facebook under Greenberg Financial Group.  Previous radio shows are available by going to www.iheart.com or using the iHeart app and typing Money Matters with Dean Greenberg.