More New All-Time Highs

June 30, 2025

Summer tends to be a good time for the stock market, but we came into June worried about what the tariff tantrums might do to sideline this bullish tendency.  In addition, we were coming off a very strong May that was the best month for stocks since November of 2022 and that rally had taken the market to a rich valuation.  Lastly, the “One Big Beautiful” was working its way through Congress and was being closely watched for potential impact on various economic sectors.  However, everything we were thinking was put on the back burner Friday the 13th when Israel decided they had enough of Iran’s threats and attacked a dozen locations within Iran.  Over the next 10 days missiles were flying both ways and market uncertainty was elevated to a new level.  It became clear in the early going that Iran was no match for Israel and when President Trump used U S “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities we all held our collective breath. What followed was a strong relief rally as it appeared most of the world was onboard with the decision, sending the S&P 500 to a new all-time high.  At the end of the month the S&P had gained 5% and is now 5.5% higher on the year.  Oil prices were very volatile during the conflict and ended the month about 6% higher.  Gold was also volatile but ended the month with a gain of just 3% and interest rates edged fractionally lower.

The month began with the market focusing on tariffs and trade talks. Trump started the month by raising tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% which sent the market lower, but it reversed intraday.  That rally continued into Tuesday, and we ended the week with a government jobs report that showed stronger than expected jobs growth in May.   The S&P 500 was 1.5% higher at the end of the first week and nearly 8% above April 30th.  The second week began with more tariff tantrums, but also news China and the U S agreed on a framework for trade talks. We also learned there was very little inflation in May, and the market was on track for another positive week when we heard about the Israeli attacks on Iran which sent the S&P to a closing loss for the week of .4%. The following week was shortened by the Juneteenth holiday and featured a high level of uncertainty as the Israel/Iran conflict went into an all-out “back and forth”.  The market seemed to take solace from Israel easily having the upper hand and the week ended just .2% lower.  We began the last full week with news Trump had decided to drop the “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities and when there was no retaliation the market exploded to a new all-time high. IF this action helps neutralize Iran, it could mean a new way of life in the Middle East. The week ended with the S&P 500 up another 3.4%.

Whether it is quarterly earnings reports, optimism about the second half of the year or simply investors being in a good mood because it is summer, July is historically the best month of the year for the market. This year there is going to be a plethora of news during the month from tariffs to war.  One can make a case with all the unrest and uncertainty in the world; there is a lot of room for good news that could drive the market higher.  Oil prices and inflation are moderating, interest rates are slowly moving lower, and the economy is continuing to grow.  As we have been saying for months, market valuations are historically high, and a pullback can come at any point, particularly after a 60-day rally that has pushed the S&P 500 up more than 10%. We are likely to see many more trade deals in the weeks ahead, but geopolitical events are also potential market movers. Investors seem to be full of optimism that we have been calling Trumptimism and we will be buyers on any tradeable decline.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790.  You can also listen to us on iHeart radio, follow us on Twitter @gbergfinancial or on Facebook under Greenberg Financial Group.  Previous radio shows are available by going to www.iheart.com or using the iHeart app and typing Money Matters with Dean Greenberg.